The Macroeconomic Consequences of Disasters

The aim of this study is to describe the macroeconomic dynamics of natural disasters and their determinants in a large sample of disaster events, the first such attempt we are aware of. Our research shows that natural disasters have a statistically observable adverse impact on the macroeconomy in the short-run. Not surprisingly, costlier events cause more pronounced slowdowns in production. Yet, interestingly, developing countries, and smaller economies, face much larger output declines following a disaster of similar relative magnitude than do developed countries or bigger economies. A close study of the determinants of these adverse macroeconomic output costs reveals several interesting patterns. Countries with a higher literacy rate, better institutions, higher per capita income, higher degree of openness to trade, and higher levels of government spending are better able to withstand the initial disaster shock and prevent further spillovers into the macroeconomy. These all suggest an increased ability to mobilize resources for reconstruction. Financial conditions also seem to be of importance; countries with more foreign exchange reserves, and higher levels of domestic credit, but with less-open capital accounts appear more robust and better able to endure natural disasters, with less adverse spillover into domestic production.Natural disasters, growth

A Hurricane Hits Hawaii: A Tale of Vulnerability to Natural Disasters

Sturm; Klimaveränderung; Makroökonomischer Einfluss; USA; Pazifischer Raum

The Economics of Natural Disasters: A Survey

Catastrophes caused by natural disasters are by no means new, yet the evolving understanding of their relevance to economic development and growth is still in its infancy. In order to facilitate further necessary research on this topic, this paper summarizes the state of the economic literature examining the aggregate impact of disasters. The paper reviews the main disaster data sources available, discusses the determinants of the direct effects of disasters, and distinguishes between short- and long-run indirect effects. The paper then examines some of the relevant policy questions and follows up with projections about the likelihood of future disasters, while paying particular attention to climate change. The paper ends by identifying several significant gaps in the literature.Natural disasters, Climate change, Growth

Prizes for Basic Research -- Human Capital, Economic Might and the Shadow of History

This paper studies the impact of several factors on the geographical distribution of basic scientific research across countries and time, and explains the dynamics of the process that has resulted in the United States becoming the undisputed leader in basic research. Our study is based on the records of major scientific awards, and on data dealing with global economic and historical trends. We investigate the degree to which scale or threshold effects account for the number of major prizes (Nobel, Fields, Kyoto, Wolf) won by different countries. We constructed a stylized model, predicting that lagged relative GDP of a country relative to the GDP of all countries engaging in basic research is an important explanatory variable of a country?s share of prizes. Scale effects imply that the association between the GDP share of a country and its prize share can be logistic -- above a certain threshold, there is a take-off range, where the prize share increases at an accelerating rate relative to the GDP share of the country, until it reaches "maturity" stage. Our empirical research findings confirm the importance of lagged relative GDP in accounting for a country's prize shares, and the presence of a "winner-takes-all" scale effect benefiting the leader. We found that U.S. basic research take-off started during the 1920s, with this research being done in the United States by U.S. scholars, prior to the immigration of scientists after Hitler's rise to power in Germany (1932-33). This is consistent with the notion that World War II set in motion forces that did not start, but hastened, the U.S. take-off, triggering immigration that contributed to the speed and intensity of U.S. research dominance. Using more recent data, we also documented the growing importance of countries that used to be at the periphery of global research, but are now possibly advancing towards the take-off stage.

Endogenous Financial and Trade Openness: Political Economy Considerations

This paper studies the endogenous determination of financial and trade openness. First, we outline channels leading to two-way feedbacks between the different modes of openness; next, we identify these feedbacks empirically. We find that one standard deviation increase in commercial openness is associated with a 9.5 percent increase in de-facto financial openness (% of GDP), controlling for political economy and macroeconomic factors. Similarly, increase in de-facto financial openness has powerful effects on future trade openness. While de-jure restrictions on capital mobility do not impact de-facto financial openness, de-jure restrictions on the current account have large adverse effect on commercial openness, suggesting that it is much easier to overcome restrictions on capital account convertibility than restrictions on commercial trade. Having established (Granger) causality, we investigate the relative magnitudes of these directions of causality using the decomposition test developed in Geweke (1982). We find that almost all of the linear feedback between trade and financial openness can be accounted for by G-causality from financial openness to trade openness (53%) and from trade to financial openness (34%). The residual is due to simultaneous correlation between the two measures.

Prizes for Basic Research -- Human Capital, Economic Might and the Shadow of History

This paper studies the impact of global factors on patterns of basic research across countries and time. We rely on the records of major scientific awards, and on data dealing with global economic and historical trends. Specifically, we investigate the degree to which scale or threshold effects account for countries share of major prizes [Nobel, Fields, Kyoto and Wolf]. We construct a stylized model, predicting that lagged relative GDP of a country relative to the GDP of all countries engaging in basic research is an important explanatory variable of country's share of prizes. Scale effects imply that the association between the GDP share of a country and its prize share tends to be logistic -- above a threshold, there is a "take off" range, where the prize share increases at an accelerating rate with the relative GDP share of the country, until it reaches "maturity" stage. Our empirical analysis confirms the importance of lagged relative GDP in accounting for countries' prize shares, and the presence of "winner takes all" scale effect benefiting the leader. Using measures of casualties during the wars, we find that the only significant effect can be found for a lag of 3 decades – i.e., deaths in the war negatively impact the viability of basic research about 30 years after the fact. With more recent data, we document the growing importance of countries that used to be at the periphery of global research, possibly advancing towards the take off stage.Global economic trends, basic research, World War I and II, human capital, winner takes all

A Hurricane’s Long-Term Economic Impact: the Case of Hawaii’s Iniki

The importance of understanding the macro-economic impact of natural disasters cannot be overstated. Hurricane Iniki, that hit the Hawaiian island of Kauai on September 11th, 1992, offers an ideal case study to better understand the long-term economic impacts of a major disaster. Iniki is uniquely suited to provide insights into the long-term economic impacts of disaster because (1) there is now seventeen years of detailed post-disaster economic data and (2) a nearby island, Maui, provides an ideal control group. Hurricane Iniki was the strongest hurricane to hit the Hawaiian Islands in recorded history, and wrought an estimated 7.4 billion (2008 US$) in initial damage. Here we show that Kauai’s economy only returned to pre-Iniki levels 7-8 years after the storm; though 17 years later, it has yet to recover in terms of its population and labor force. As we document, these long-term adverse impacts of disasters are ‘hidden.’ They are not usually treated as ‘costs’ of disasters, and are ignored when cost-benefit analysis of mitigation programs is used, or when countries, states, and islands attempt to prepare, financially and otherwise, to the possibility of future events.natural disasters, hurricane, Iniki, Kauai, Hawaii

The Economics of Natural Disasters - A Survey

Catastrophes caused by natural disasters are by no means new, yet our evolving understanding regarding their relevance to economic development and growth is still at its infancy. In order to facilitate further necessary research on this topic, we summarize the state of the economic literature that examines the aggregate impact of disasters. We review the main disaster data sources available, discuss the determinants of the direct effects of disasters, and distinguish between the short- and long-run indirect effects. After reviewing these literatures, we examine some of the relevant policy questions, and follow up with projections about the future likelihood of disasters, while paying particular attention to the projected climate change. We end by identifying several significant gaps in this literature.natural disasters, climate change, growth

How bad are twins? output costs of currency and banking crises

We investigate the output effects of severe banking and currency crises in emerging markets, focusing on whether “twin crises” (simultaneous occurrence of currency and banking crises) exist as a unique phenomenon and whether they entail especially large losses. Recent literature, mostly relating to the East Asian crisis, emphasizes the interplay and reinforcement between currency and banking crises, presumably making twin crises particularly damaging to the real economy. Using a panel data set over the 1975–97 period and covering 24 emerging-market economies, we find that twin crises do not contribute any additional (marginal) negative impact on output growth. That is, twin crises do not adversely impact output over and above the independent effects associated with a currency and banking crisis taken together. We find that currency (banking) crises are very damaging, reducing output by about 5–8 (8–10) percent over a two-four year period. The cumulative output loss of both types of crises occurring at the same time is therefore very large, around 13–18 percent, and should alarm policymakers. However, twin crises are “bad” only in that they entail output losses associated with both currency and banking crises, not because there are additional feedback or interactive effects further damaging the economy. This result is robust to alternative model specifications, lag structures and using IV and GMM estimation procedures that correct bias associated with simultaneity and estimation of dynamic panel models with country-specific effects.Financial crises - Asia ; East Asia